Finding Value: Do You Really Have What It Takes?

 

If you genuinely have what it takes to recognize true value – you probably already know it. The trouble is – many guys think they have this ability, but most don’t. And they end up paying for it. Literally. So the thing to do is to prove it to yourself.

Recognizing the value in something is important everywhere in life, from buying a house to a second-hand car, to investing and, yeah, even gambling—spotting value is something that just seems natural to some people and completely alien to others.

The quickest and easiest way to test whether you really have what it takes is in the world of online gambling. These days, it’s dangerously easy to place a bet and to get various free offers to do so, as the major bookies compete hard for your bucks. Bucks they are hoping you lose. But can you spot the true values and make a steady profit over time? This is the million-dollar question.

Most people can’t, but some value hunters can. The trick is to ignore the noise and concentrate on the real value – never letting your opinion be swayed by the illogical vagaries of the market. But be warned – this really does take some doing. So if you open an account with a bookie (taking full advantage of the free offers available of course) then put into place your own value-based strategy, you’ll soon see if you’re good enough. Just remember to experiment with tiny stakes only at first.

You want it to hurt a little if you lose, not cost you your house.

So try to find situations where you believe the odds don’t reflect the true possibilities and wager accordingly – accepting regular losses as an inevitable part of your strategy.

An excellent recent example of this was in the League Cup betting with Bet 365 in England in February when Chelsea took on Tottenham Hotspur. (And if you don’t see the value in adding League soccer to your betting roster, it’s time you changed your mind…)

League leaders Chelsea were favorites to emerge victorious, and yup, they woere. But Spurs were as big as 7/2 with some major bookmakers to win the final in a two-horse race. And when you consider the fact that Spurs had soundly beaten Chelsea 5-3 on New Year’s Day, then this was clear value.

The market thought otherwise because Chelsea are sweeping all before them in the Premier League standings. But the fact that the market was right on this occasion proves nothing – which is exactly the point to bear in mind here. The truth is that Spurs would be likely to win this tie, pro-rata, one more than one occasion from four and a half games. So, if you placed the equivalent bets consistently you would “inevitably” come out steadily ahead as long as our analysis is proved to be sound.

And this is where the value instinct comes in: you either have it or you don’t. Just accept the inevitable losses but try to move steadily ahead on a three steps forward, two steps back type of basis.

If you can master the art of avoiding the market’s illogical sway in this particular market, then you will probably enjoy similar success in other fields where the competition is fierce. Think about that for a second: If you can face risk, and assess the value, life becomes a while lot richer… And if you don’t have what it takes, well at least it will only have cost you relative pennies as long as you’re sensible.

[Image by  cfcunofficial under Creative Commons license]